Consumer Confidence Index: 2018 3rd quarter

In the third quarter of 2018, Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) in Mongolia has decreased by 4.8 percentage points compared to the same period of the last year and reached to 81.7. A significant decrease in the Expectation Index, contributed to this fall. In particular, the Expectation Index has decreased by 16.9 percentage points and reached to 100.5. However, the Current Situation Index has increased by 13.2 (32.8) percentage points from the same period level of 40.2 and reached to 53.4.

Figure 1. Consumer Confidence Index

Improvement in job availability (32.4 pp) caused a significant increase in the Current Situation Index. Expectation about business condition (-24.2 pp) was the main cause for a decrease in the Expectation Index. Moreover, expectation indices of job availability and income have decreased by 7.6 and 18.8 percentage points, respectively.

Table1. Consumer Confidence Index

The average annual growth rate of the quarterly GDP was 11.9 during the period of higher than normal (100) Consumer Confidence Index, whereas the average growth rate was 4.6% during the period of lower than normal CCI.

Figure 2. CCI and GDP

Source: www.1212.mn NSO website: